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Saturday, October 04th, 2008 11:00
Basketball - ABA
Discuss in forum (1 entries)
Pick:  FMP ML   Result: 78-84
Stake:  7/10   Odds:  2.22  Verified odd Bookmaker:  PINNACLE   vCash: No
Posted: Oct 04, 2008, 06:52




Odds are crazy in this match, for me FMP is favorite in this match and odd shouldn't be more than 1.70 on home win.Both teams changed their rosters, and lost key players, for FMP that were Erceg(Olympiakos) and Krstovic(Hemofarm).But once again, FMP showed how great basketball academy they have, as they've got few very good players from there.They have very young team, avg. 20 years, but that doesn't bring them lack of quality what show their pre-season matches: won Uniks, Surguta, Lotomatica, Borac and Split, and lost only to Bosna.On the other side, Crvena Zvezda changed almost full roster, with only 4 players from last season left Tadija(won't play), Kikanovic, Bakic and Kovac.They lost their by far best player Omar Cook, and that is big disadvantage to them.But instead of him they bought 2 new Americans, Andre Ovens and Robert Lorens, but they didn't have enough time to adapt on Europe style and I don't believe they will show the best they can.Zvezda played very bad pre-season matches, and had some unexpected lost like against Dexia, and lost to Lotimatica(I metioned FMP won them) 2 times over 15 points difference.As Zvezda coach Pesic sais, his team is still not ready for new season, and this could easily be home win.

From other matches, I like Zadar(-9.5), as 90% Grant won't play for Split, what is big loss, and Stipanovic had only two trainings, after he had high temerature.






Saturday, October 04th, 2008 08:30
Football - Ger. Bundesliga I
Discuss in forum (4 entries)
Pick:  Leverkusen   Result: 0-1
Stake:  8/10   Odds:  1.65  Verified odd Bookmaker:  Nordicbet   vCash: No
Posted: Oct 04, 2008, 02:32




Leverkusen impressed me in last games, I relly have no words to describe their way of play, amazing how many chances can make two players Kiesling and Helmes in attck.They play attractive football, with many goals, and I wasn't sure to take home win, or over 2.5, but as Hertha best scorer Pantelic is doubtful my first option is definetly Leverkusen.Leverkusen won Bochum 2-3 in last round (after leading 0-3) and before that trashed Hannover 4-0 at home.On the other hand Hertha is in some kind of crisis, lost to Cottbus at home what is really bad for them, and had to play UEFA Cup in the mid-week against St.Patricks away 0-0, but passed.Leverkusen is for sure much better team, and Hertha has some injured players: Ebert, Pistzczek, Kacar, Fiedler, Lucio, Chemiti, Hartmann, Traore and Burchert, and as I said Pantelic is doubtfull, so this should be another easy win for Leverkusen.






Saturday, October 04th, 2008 09:00
Football - Eng. Premier
Discuss in forum (3 entries)
Pick:  Arsenal   Result: 1-1
Stake:  10/10   Odds:  1.65  Verified odd Bookmaker:  Interwetten   vCash: No
Posted: Oct 04, 2008, 02:13




After shocking lose to Hull in Premier league, Arsenal recovered in Champions League trashing Porto 4-0.They need to get back on winning tracks in order to have chances to win the title.It is sure Arsenal has very good young squad, and they will approach to this game 100% cause they can't allow to have 2 defeats in row in championship against much worse teams than they are.In this match they will have xxx chances, as they always do, and to Sunderlands weak defens they can score few goals for sure.The Black Cats have very good attck for sure (Cisse, Diouf and Malbranque), but they have really poor defense, and they will leave Arsenal much space.I don't have much to say about this game, Arsenal is Arsenal, they will make 50 chances, IMO score at least 3 goals (this should be their day, as they didn't scored much against Hull), and show who is boss here.I will take this 10/10, cause I expected odd something like 1.30-1.35 and this is huge value.






Saturday, October 04th, 2008 11:00
Basketball - ABA
Discuss in forum (1 entries)
Pick:  Zagreb (-6)   Result: 81-90
Stake:  8/10   Odds:  1.91  Verified odd Bookmaker:  10bet   vCash: No
Posted: Oct 03, 2008, 10:06




In the opening of the new season, this bet looks very good to me.Lately Zagreb played in Spain, and they showed some good games, in 6 days played 5 games, and since 25.09. when the last game was played, they were resting, and having easier trainings, till yesterday.In Spain they had 4 loses, and only one win, but good play was showed and this is not disapointing at all.Zagreb lost first two against Murcia 84-70, and Pamesa 72-64, were match was decided by Pamesas fantastic defense.In third match, Zagreb had some luck, they won Murcia in last second with Morovic 3-pointer, and with all that played without one of their bet players Vladovic.After that it was obvious they are tired and after that lost to Granada and Cajasol.They are very coordinated now, and newcomers Stimac, Rahmic, Drezg, Dijan and Rikic are part of old teams.What is most important to Zagreb is that they managed to keep Vladovic, Simon and Tomic, and they expect top 8 in this competition this year.They have great chance in first round against team that was going trough big crises last year, and in this one they are coming with 9 new players, that had to coordinate in 2 months.It is sure they will fight, and want this win, especially as they have 4 out of 4 against Zagreb, but IMHO they have no chances.Vojvodinas new captain said they will try to make big surprise, but that it is sure Zagreb is more quality team than they are.For most of their players this will be first game in NLB league, and I believe they have nothing to look for under "Tower".






Wednesday, October 01st, 2008 13:45
Football - Champions L
Discuss in forum (2 entries)
Pick:  Under 2.5   Result: 3-1
Stake:  9/10   Odds:  1.67  Verified odd Bookmaker:  StanJames   vCash: No
Posted: Oct 01, 2008, 09:15




Today I don't see many good picks, and this is the one I like the most.Anorthosis is playing very good for their expectations, cause noone expected from them even to be in the Champions League, and after that they even managed to play draw away at Bremen against Werder.Today they are playing at home, against Panathinaikos who lost first match against Inter at home 0-2, and for sure knows how danger their opponent is.Panathinaikos rival Olympiakos played on Cypar and lost 3-0 to this opponent.So I beleieve Panathinaikos won't understate them, like Werder and Oly did, and they will be glad not to losing this game.Anorthosis has great defence and they showed that at Bremen, keeping their sheat cleen against the teams who in their last games scored 5 times to Hoffenheim, 5 times to Bayern away, too, and Cottbus 3 in second half.I believe that Cypriots will be satesfied to take another point in this competition, what would leave them nice chances for 3rd place in group.IMHO, this will be a very defensive match, with strong defenses and I don't believe any of these teams will score.






Tuesday, September 30th, 2008 13:45
Football - Champions L
Discuss in forum (1 entries)
Pick:  Over 2.5   Result: 1-2
Stake:  9/10   Odds:  1.90  Verified odd Bookmaker:  CENTREBET   vCash: No
Posted: Sep 29, 2008, 11:38




IMHO Real is overestimated in this match!Zenit is playing great football, against Juve they should win, had many chances, and should have scored at least 1, but luck wasn't on their side.Zenit played against CSKA and Lokomotiva at Moscow, and in both matches showed some really good football, should win both matches, had million tries, but ball just didn't wanted to get into net, so they lost against CSKA, but in last round, they proved they know to score and scored 3 in Moscow.Now they have 0 points before Real, and to be honest, I believe in their win against Real.They will surely play attackive football as allways, and they will score IMO at least 2 goals.We all know how Real is playing, they like to score a lot, very good strikers who can score to anyone, and against Zenit they will score, but the question is how much.Both teams are very quality, both want wins, and if you want to win, you have to score, so it is logical both teams will attack a lot.I expect great football in this match, and many goals, and this odd is pure value, I wouldn't give over 1.50.This is for high stakes.






Brynas - Modo    +6
Monday, September 29th, 2008 12:00
Ice Hockey - Sweden
Discuss in forum (1 entries)
Pick:  Over 5.5   Result: 5-3
Stake:  6/10   Odds:  2.00  Verified odd Bookmaker:  5dimes   vCash: No
Posted: Sep 29, 2008, 08:41




First of all, team mews:
Brynas: It is clear that Jacob Mark Power will be back in Brynäs goals. Ove Molin fever is sick and it is doubtful whether he can play against Modo. Similarly, it is doubtful whether Peter continued Nolander can play.
MoDo: Mikko Kurvinen (neck), Per Keep Berg (groin), Andreas Salomonsson (groin) and Tommy Wargh (shoulder) are injured and out of spel. Det makes MoDo once again playing with three junior slopes.
Brynas opened season wonderful, unexpected, they are first in the league, and I believe noone expected that.They won Brynas won first two matches against oponents that understated them, and they won them with very good counterattacks.After that matches they showed they will have problems with some less quality teams, and Djurgarden won them away 1-4(Djurgarden is not bad team, they are better than Brynas for sure, but not top class team in Sweden).On the other side, Modo is very unpredictable team, and for example they won Djurgarden 6-3 in last round.Power is back on Brynas goal, and Modo is playing with juniors.I believe Modo can score them 3 goals, and this is going to be very interesting match, cause Brynas in not so good team as table shows.IMHO best choice is over that is very good payed, and their H2H is full of matches over 5.5 goals.






Monday, September 29th, 2008 12:00
Football - Sweden
Discuss in forum (1 entries)
Pick:  Mjallby   Result: 4-2
Stake:  7/10   Odds:  2.95  Verified odd Bookmaker:  EXPEKT   vCash: No
Posted: Sep 29, 2008, 07:58




I accidently came on info about this game, and absences in this game make big difference.For home team two most important players, Pär Cederqvist and Mikael Dahlgren won't play, and that's their huge minus.I didn't understud well what wrote, and I can't find that link again, but it was some coach decision, he wants to see how will his team look next year without this players.That may be good decision, because he wants to what he has, and what he needs for next year, and their table position is very good, and can't go up or down.On the other hand, their todays opponent Mjallby still has some chances to play in higher rank next year, but they need this win.In this match they will play without Daniel Nilsson, but he is less important for them.Mjallby won last match against Falkenbergs at home 4-1, and shows some signs of good form, and Landskrona lost to Degerfors 2-0 away.In last 5 matches their H2H is 4-1-0 for Mjallby, anthat are matches since 2006(before that they didn't played since 2001.Mjallby won 2 home, and 2 away matches while only draw was in 2007 1-1 on Mjallbys ground.Last match was 3 months ago and Mjallby won at home 4-1.I believe this is huge value and this is worth more that mid stake.






Sunday, September 28th, 2008 07:00
Motor Sports - Formula 1
Pick:  Lewis Hamilton   Result: Fernando Alonso
Stake:  5/10   Odds:  3.10   Odds not verified by Blogabet!
Bookmaker:  EXPEKT   vCash: No
Posted: Sep 28, 2008, 01:47




IMHO Hamilton is driver in best form from all the drives.He is driving very good, and has Massa one point behind him.He is on second pole position place, but it wouldn't wonder me if he would overtake him in begining, first two circles.In Mclaren tyres are getting hot faster, and that is their advantage, and thats why I believe overtake in begining is very possible.This is new race, so everything is possible, it is night race, drivers are not used to this conditions, and driving skills will be very important.Rain is possible, and on rain Hamilton is much better driver than Massa (for me his only rival in this race), and I said his tyres are getting hot much faster.This is nice value, I wouldn't give Hamilton more than 2.30 , and I take this with some lower mid stake.






Milan - Inter    -6
Sunday, September 28th, 2008 13:30
Football - Ita. Serie A
Pick:  Inter   Result: 1-0
Stake:  6/10   Odds:  2.75  Verified odd Bookmaker:  PINNACLE   vCash: No
Posted: Sep 27, 2008, 11:44




Rossoneri and Neroazzuri are playing their first derby this year.On the paper, Milan is host, but as we all know that is not important at all, cause they both play at the same stadium, San Siro (aka Giuseppe Meazza).Inter opened season much better with very good plays, and they have first place with 10 points from 4 matches.On the other hand Milan entery to season was disasterful, they lost to Bologna and Genoa.That two defeats showed to Ancelloti that Kaka is irreplaceable, and that Milan has no player that could replace him.Ronaldinho didn't showed much in that games, just like Shevchenko, as they both were benched, and scores after that move are looking nice now.One big problem for this match for Milan makes Boriellos injury as he was their best striker in pair with Pato.Ancelotti has two possibilities for this match, to put Ronaldinho and Kaka as attacking midfielders behind Pato, or put Shevchenko as partner to Pato in attack.Milans main goal in this season is Scudetto, as they don't play Champions League, so this is very important match for them.Inter is playing in Champions League, but for them this win would mean 7 points difference between them and Milan.Ibrahimovic is showing great games last time, and he is for sure most important player for Inter, and he will be very important player in this game, cause Milan can't keep their sheet clean for 90 minutes.I believe Inter will score at least 2 goals to poor defense of Milan, and Milan can't score two with this problems in attack.But after all, this is a derby, and in derbys like this everything is possible, so mid stake is fine for me.






Saturday, September 27th, 2008 08:30
Football - Ger. Bundesliga I
Discuss in forum (2 entries)
Pick:  Over 2.5   Result: 2-3
Stake:  7/10   Odds:  1.60  Verified odd Bookmaker:  Bet365   vCash: No
Posted: Sep 26, 2008, 16:14




This is a match between 12th Bochum and 5th Leverkusen.This is match between team that are in totally opposite form, while Leverkusen is playing very attractive, but they have discipiline in game, too.Their attackers are very good, scoring in every game, and best of them is for sure Patric Helmes who is sharing top scorers position in the league with Hoffenheims Ibisevic.He scored hat trick against Hannover last round, and I believe he will score at least one in this match.Leverkusen scored 15 goals in 5 rounds what is really impressive, and conced 8, what makes it amazing 4.6 goals per game.Bochum, on the other hand has goal difference 5-5, and only 2 per game in avarange.IMHO Leverkusen is better team, but thay are playing away, and Bochum is good at home, so my option for this game is over 2.5, what is very good offer cause of Leverkusen way of play.






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The Chosen One
 
Info

Odds verification provided in cooperation with OddsOddsOdds.com 15 verified odds
1 unverified odds

16
picks
-5
profit
-4%
yield
 
Win-Loss-Void: 8-8-0 
Win rate: 50% 
Stake avg.: 7.5 
Odd avg.: 2.08 
Staked: 120.00 
Returned: 114.63 
Streak: ?LossLossLossLossLossWinWin 
vCash (0/0): + $0.00 
 
 
Categories

Basketball
ABA -15 
Football
Belgium +5 
Champions L -1 
Croatia +6 
Eng. Premier -10 
Ger. Bundesliga I -4 
Ita. Serie A +0 
Spa. Primera +8 
Sweden -7 
Ice Hockey
Sweden +17 
Motor Sports
Formula 1 -5 
 
Archive

October 2008  -42 
September 2008  +37 
 
thechosenone's top bookmakers
1. Bet365 (3)
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5. 5dimes (1)
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7. StanJames (1)
8. 10bet (1)
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